Bristol Oak Management

Philosophy & approach

We trade principles, not anomalies.

Every program applies the same risk-first framework: mathematically defined setups, predetermined position sizing, and codified execution. The approach is built on repeatable decisions and statistical discipline rather than forecasts, headlines, or conviction.

Approach: Systematic directional
Markets: Global macro futures
Typical target: ~4:1 reward-to-risk
Breakeven: Above ~20% win rate
Execution: Codified, rules-based

The asymmetry is structural; the ratio adjusts to the setup. Specific setups may call for tighter or wider profiles.

Markets don’t reward prediction. They reward discipline, defined risk, and an edge repeated with patience.

Methodology

One strategy, refined over years and applied everywhere.

Behind every Bristol Oak program is a single proprietary methodology, developed over more than six years across thousands of hand-reviewed charts, multiple products, and many market conditions. Only the market and the timeframe change.

i.

Recurring market structure

Price action repeats. Across every market we trade, a finite set of objectively defined structures appears again and again. Our playbook catalogues these events and the precise conditions under which each becomes tradable.

ii.

Defined risk, asymmetric reward

Every qualifying event is traded to a strict template: a predetermined entry, a fixed point of invalidation where the idea is proven wrong, and a profit target set as a multiple of that risk. Losses are small and known before the trade is placed.

iii.

An edge in expectancy

The edge is statistical, not predictive. Because each winner is a multiple of each loser, the methodology is built to compound positive expectancy over many trades rather than to be right on any single one.

The trade template4 : 1

Breakeven win rate

20.0%

Reward-to-risk target4.0 : 1

2:13:14:15:1

Illustrative arithmetic only. Breakeven win rate is 1 ÷ (1 + reward-to-risk), before fees and slippage. It is a property of the ratio, not a performance figure.

6+Years developing the methodology

1,000sCharts backtested by hand

1Playbook behind every program

~4:1Typical reward-to-risk target

Descriptions of the methodology are general and intentionally omit proprietary detail. Reward-to-risk ratios and win-rate thresholds describe how the strategy is designed, not a prediction, target, or guarantee of results. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss.

Diversification

Five sectors, one discipline.

The flagship program trades a deliberately broad set of futures markets, spanning five sectors that respond differently to inflation, growth, and shifts in monetary policy. For investors, that breadth is the point.

Currencies01 / 05

Euro FX

6E · CME

The most liquid currency future, pricing the euro against the dollar. It moves on relative interest-rate policy between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.

Access to currencies, energies, metals, commodities, and interest rates is a source of diversification that behaves independently of a traditional stock-and-bond portfolio.

Programs

One discipline, applied with intent.

Bristol Oak runs two programs. They share the same risk-first framework and are delivered through separately managed accounts, differing in markets, time horizon, and objective.

Flagship

Multi-Sector Swing Program

The flagship mandate trades five products across five sectors. Setups are identified on the daily chart and held as swing positions, typically for three to twenty days. This is the diversified, core expression of the Bristol Oak approach, built for long-term compound growth.

6EEuro FXCLCrude OilGCGoldZWWheatZN10-Year Note

Markets: Five sectors · five products
Time horizon: Daily charts · 3–20 days
Objective: Long-term compound growth
Risk / trade: ~0.5–1% of equity
Economics: 1% monthly pref · 50/50
Capacity: $250 million
Access: Qualified Eligible Persons only

Intraday

ES Intraday Program

A concentrated, fully automated program in the E-mini S&P 500, the most liquid equity-index futures market. It trades a small number of defined setups in the regular session and closes flat every day.

Session · Central TimeRegular session

Entries 8:30 – 14:45

8:3010:0012:0014:0015:00 flat

Market: E-mini S&P 500 (ES · CME)
Style: Intraday · flat overnight
Execution: Fully automated
Risk / trade: ~1% of equity
Activity: 1–3 trades / day
Economics: 1% pref · 50/50 · monthly
Capacity: $5 million total AUM

Both programs are available only to Qualified Eligible Persons, and full terms are provided on inquiry. Preferred returns, profit splits, and monthly distributions describe how realized profits are allocated when they occur; they are not a target, forecast, or guarantee, and distributions depend on realized trading results. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss, and the intraday program carries materially higher risk than the flagship program.

Risk management

Risk controls, built into execution.

Risk management is central to Bristol Oak’s approach. Our framework operates across three pillars: a defined risk architecture, automated enforcement at the system level, and independent oversight from third parties.

i.Risk architecture

Per-trade risk is typically 0.5% to 1% of account equity, depending on the program.
Per-sector exposure is typically capped at 2% of account equity.
Total account exposure is capped at 3% of account equity.
All positions are sized by risk-weighted position sizing, not notional exposure.
Risk parameters are defined prior to execution and applied uniformly across all strategies.

ii.Automated enforcement

All trades are entered with predefined bracketed (OCO) orders.
Live positions and portfolio exposure are monitored in real time via API.
Positions are automatically liquidated and trading halted if daily risk limits are breached.

iii.Oversight & accountability

Dual human oversight through Compliance and Execution functions.
Trading activity is reviewed and reconciled through client account reporting and internal supervisory controls.
Client assets remain in separately managed accounts held away from the manager.
Compliance oversight is supported by an independent third-party officer.
The program operates under CFTC and NFA regulatory oversight as a registered CTA.

The limits, in dollarsIllustration

Account equity$1,000,000

Risk on a single trade0.5–1%$5,000 – $10,000

Exposure in any one sector2% cap$20,000

Total open exposure3% cap$30,000

Equity outside open risk$970,000

Shows the typical limits above applied to an account size you choose. Limits bound the risk the program takes on open positions; they do not cap losses, which can exceed these amounts in fast or gapping markets.

Investor eligibility

Who is a Qualified Eligible Person?

Bristol Oak’s separately managed account program is available only to Qualified Eligible Persons as defined by CFTC Regulation 4.7. In brief, a prospective advisory client must satisfy both an investor-status test and a portfolio test.

Test one

Investor status

Accredited investor status is required as a baseline, but on its own is insufficient. The investor must additionally qualify as a qualified purchaser (a natural person owning at least $5,000,000 in investments, exclusive of their primary residence), knowledgeable employee, or other enumerated category, including certain institutional investors, registered commodity professionals, and non-U.S. persons.

Test two

Portfolio requirement

At least $4,000,000 in securities, or $400,000 on deposit with a futures commission merchant as initial margin and option premiums, or a proportional combination of the two. Thresholds were raised by the CFTC effective March 2025.

Summary only. Certain categories of client are exempt from the portfolio test. Eligibility is verified during onboarding before any advisory relationship is established.

Leadership

The people behind the program.

Bristol Oak operates with a small, focused team. The programs are overseen by the firm’s founder, with senior industry perspective provided by an experienced advisor.

Calvin Williams, founder and Chief Investment Officer of Bristol Oak Management — Calvin Williams, Ph.D.

Founder & Chief Investment Officer

Calvin Williams, Ph.D.

Bristol Oak Management, LLC

Dr. Williams is the founder and Chief Investment Officer of Bristol Oak Management. He holds a Ph.D. and brings an academic, research-first discipline to the firm’s systematic futures programs.

He designed the methodology behind every Bristol Oak program and oversees its research, testing, and risk controls.

Ph.D., University of AberdeenResearch doctorate

Series 3 licensedChief Investment Officer of a registered CTA

Six years in the marketsDeveloping one methodology across products

A decade in leadershipSenior management of large organizations

Senior Industry Advisor · Strategic & industry perspective

Tim Watkin

Tim brings nearly thirty years of institutional investment experience across equities, multi-asset portfolios, derivatives, FX, and commodities. Over his career he has managed two separate funds, each exceeding $1 billion in assets under management. He provides strategic and industry perspective to Bristol Oak’s management.

Part of Bristol Oak

The trading firm is the means. What it funds is the point.

Bristol Oak Management is the financial engine of the wider Bristol Oak family. The firm is built for discipline and durability rather than size for its own sake, so that what it earns can be put to work for other people.

You are hereManagement

Registered commodity trading advisor.

The familyBristol Oak

Five organizations under one name.

Charitable givingFoundation

Trading profits given to selected nonprofits.

Theological educationAcademy

University-level teaching for general readers.

Investor inquiries

A conversation, not a pitch.

We welcome inquiries from qualified investors and institutions evaluating systematic managed futures.

Inquiries: inquiries@bristoloak.com
Principal office: Spring, Texas
Registration: CFTC-registered CTA · NFA ID 0570529

A note on materials.Detailed program documentation, including the firm’s Disclosure Document, investment management agreement, investor presentations, and performance where available, is provided only to Qualified Eligible Persons who have made a direct inquiry and satisfied applicable eligibility requirements. No performance data, track record, or targeted returns are distributed through this website.

Systematic managed futures, engineered around risk.